AI Model:

Myles Turner▼

MIL · C

PPG

11.9

RPG

5.3

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

7.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.3

11.9

7.6

RPG-2.1

5.3

3.2

APG-0.7

1.5

0.8

SPG+0.1

0.7

0.8

BPG-0.7

1.5

0.8

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 8 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 8 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 3 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 22 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 7 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 8 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 13 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 3 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 7 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 7 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

52%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

60%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

59%

UNDER 0.5

69%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.2

7.2

RPG

4.8

4.6

APG

1.1

1.4

vs POR (H2H)9 games

PPG

16.1

RPG

8.1

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Alex Sarr	3	19	36%	-7.4%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	3	19	75%	+31.2%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	16	14%	-29.5%	medium
Jarrett Allen	3	14	67%

Role boost from Giannis/Porter absences, but current form still points to a conservative line

Myles Turner’s season averages sit at 11.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, but his recent form is clearly down with 7.6 PPG over the last 5 and 8.6 PPG over the last 10. The key offset is teammate absences: Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.4 APG) and Kevin Porter Jr. (17.4 PPG, 7.4 APG) are both out, which can lift Turner’s role and minutes. Still, he is questionable with right calf soreness, and his recent minutes have fallen to 23.0, so the safest projections stay closer to his season baseline than his ceiling. Against a Portland defense allowing a 117.08 defensive rating and 100 pace, the matchup is workable, but his recent production and injury tag cap confidence on overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.6(↓ from 11.9)

RPG

3.2(↓ from 5.3)

APG

0.8(↓ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Portland defenders, and there is no clear one-on-one assignment signal to lean on. The opponent profile shows a 117.08 defensive rating, 100 pace, 0.373 scoring suppression, and 0.639 three suppression, which creates a mixed but playable environment for Turner.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution
Myles Turner▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	11.5→14.5
Myles Turner▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP
Myles Turner▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	FLIP
Myles Turner▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	1.5→2.5
Myles Turner▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	—
Myles Turner▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%
Myles Turner▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%
Myles Turner▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	90%
Myles Turner▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	—
Myles Turner▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PRA14OVER7%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

3PA5UNDER46%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA2UNDER30%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A11UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

PTS8UNDER11%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

BLK1UNDER21%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM1UNDER32%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

REB4UNDER19%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

3PM1UNDER16%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

Featured Pick

Myles Turner

Rebounds OVER 4.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest quantified edge in the dataset, with a 11.4% edge at DraftKings and positive EV. Turner’s season rebound mean is 5.3, and Giannis being out supports extra frontcourt responsibility even though recent rebounding has been softer.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donovan Clingan	1	6	7	50%	58%
Robert Williams III	1	2	4	100%	100%
Jerami Grant	1	1	10	43%	57%
Kris Murray	1	1	0	0%	0%
Toumani Camara	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.566%MEDIUM

He averages 11.9 PPG for the season, but only 7.6 over the last 5 and 8.6 over the last 10 with a down trend. The listed line is 11.5, and the recent drop plus questionable calf status make the under the sharper side.

reboundsOVER 4.561%MEDIUM

This is the only value side provided, with a 11.4% edge and positive EV at the 4.5 line. Even though recent rebounds are 3.2 over the last 5, his season mean is 5.3 and he has a strong path to extra usage with Giannis out.

assistsOVER 1.552%MEDIUM

Turner’s season assist average is 1.47 and his last 10 is 1.0, so this is not a strong over, but the market line is only 1.5. With Giannis and Kevin Porter Jr. out, his assist opportunities can tick up slightly.

threesUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.08 threes per game on the season, but the recent trend is down to 1.7 over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 20. The book lines also lean under, and the 1.5 line is less attractive than his season mean suggests because of the current usage dip.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 5. The line is low at 0.5, so a single steal clears it.

blocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

Turner’s season block average is 1.5, but his last 5 is only 0.8 and last 10 is 0.9. With recent production below his season norm, the under is the safer call at 1.5.

stocksUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.21 stocks on the season, but only 1.6 over the last 5 and 1.6 over the last 10. Given the recent dip and higher variance, the under is slightly preferred if this market is offered around 2.5.

prUNDER 21.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 17.2 combined, while the recent form is even lower at 10.8 over the last 5. The 21.5 line is well above both his season and recent levels.

paUNDER 16.559%MEDIUM

Turner’s season points plus assists sits at 13.4, and his recent form is 8.4 over the last 5. The line is inflated relative to his normal output even with some usage lift from teammate absences.

double_doubleUNDER 0.569%MEDIUM

He does have double-double potential, but his season scoring and rebounding averages are 11.9 and 5.3, and recent rebounding has dropped to 3.2. That combination makes a double-double less likely unless his minutes and usage spike materially.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS