AI Model:

Ousmane Dieng—

MIL · SF

PPG

5.9

RPG

2.5

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

10.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.1

5.9

10.0

RPG+0.1

2.5

2.6

APG+0.6

1.6

2.2

SPG+0.5

0.3

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

BOS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs BOS: 13 pts

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 14 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 11 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 2 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 12 pts

MIA

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs MIA: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 19 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 13 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 11 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 7 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

86%

REB

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

AST

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

73%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 10

64%

P+A

UNDER 7.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.1

9.6

RPG

4.3

2.9

APG

2.5

2.2

vs POR (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.1

RPG

3.3

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Devin Booker	2	9	27%	-19.3%	low
Jalen Green	2	9	27%	-15.1%	low
Kevin Durant	1	7	33%	-9.1%	low
Kyle Filipowski	4	7	71%	+29.0%

Dieng’s minutes are up, but the points market still leans under

Ousmane Dieng has been playing far above his season baseline lately, with 10.0 PPG over the last 5 and 10.2 PPG over the last 10 versus a 5.9 season average, while his minutes have jumped from 16.2 season MPG to 28.1 MPG recently. The role boost is real with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. out, but his recent scoring is still well above his season norm and the value models heavily favor the under on his points line. Portland has a 117.08 defensive rating and the opponent context does not suggest an easy efficiency spot, so the safer read is that his volume stays useful but the scoring reverts closer to his season profile.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.0(↑ from 5.9)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.5)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

Portland's defensive rating is 117.08, pace is 100, and the scoring_suppression mark is 0.373 with three_suppression at 0.639. key_defenders is not empty, but the provided data only shows low-minute defender samples, so the matchup read should stay broad rather than over-specific.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Evolution	Actual	Result
Ousmane Dieng▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	2/2	50%	FLIP	16	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	60%	FLIP	4	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	1/2	60%	FLIP	4	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	FLIP	2	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	80%	FLIP	1	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	20%	FLIP	4	✓
Ousmane Dieng▼	PRA	10	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	10%	FLIP	24	✗
Ousmane Dieng▼	P+A	7.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	FLIP	20	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA29.5UNDER17%logisticDecent Leg (12/20)2/2010%+38.1% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Line moved +1.0▼

PTS18.5UNDER32%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x2/2010%+36.3% edgeLine moved +1.0; Value edge changed -0.032▼

REB5.5UNDER24%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+23.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Value edge changed +0.068; Odds moved materially▼

AST5.5UNDER21%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)4/2020%+29.3% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted +0.119▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

P+A15UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

3PM1.5UNDER42%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%+20.4% edgeNo material changes▼

R+A8UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Ousmane Dieng

Points UNDER 11.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data: the book line is 11.5, his season average is only 5.9 PPG, and the value prop shows a 33.8% edge on the under at DraftKings. His recent 10.0 PPG stretch is strong, but it is still well above his season norm and looks like a candidate for regression.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Sidy Cissoko	2	3	2	50%	50%
Jerami Grant	2	2	9	67%	75%
Duop Reath	2	2	4	67%	67%
Deni Avdija	1	2	2	0%	0%
Kris Murray	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 11.586%HIGH

His season mean is 5.93 PPG, and even with the recent surge to 10.0 PPG over the last 5, the value data shows a 33.8% edge on the under at this line. Recent production is hot, but the current number is still inflated relative to his longer sample.

reboundsUNDER 4.571%HIGH

He averages 2.48 RPG on the season and 4.0 RPG over the last 10, but the season baseline is still well below 4.5. The under also grades positively in the value data, with the best edge listed at 22.7%.

assistsUNDER 3.573%HIGH

His season mean is 1.61 APG and his last 5 are 2.2 APG, which is improved but still below a 3.5 line. The under is supported by the value sheet and the recent assist spike looks harder to sustain at this prop.

threesUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.13 made threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, but the line is still set at 1.5 in a spot where regression is plausible. The under is the value side, and his three-point rate is more volatile than his current form suggests.

stocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His season stocks average is 0.65 and recent stocks are 0.8, both below a 1.5 threshold. With moderate variance and only a small recent uptick, the under is the safer side.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

He has 2.2 turnovers in the last 5, 1.9 over the last 10, and 1.4 over the last 20, so this is more of a borderline projection. The recent ball-handling load is elevated with 28.1 recent MPG, but confidence stays modest because the season baseline is lower.

praUNDER 1064%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 10.0 PRA, but that comes with only 16.2 MPG and the combo prop is inherently higher variance. Given the conservative bias on combo props, the under is the preferred lean.

paUNDER 7.566%MEDIUM

He averages 7.5 points + assists by season mean, but the recent form is inflated and the line would likely be exposed to regression. Because combo props are volatile, the under is the safer side.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS