AI Model:

Pete Nance▲

MIL · PF

PPG

4.7

RPG

2.3

APG

0.7

L5 PPG

5.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.1

4.7

5.8

RPG+1.7

2.3

4.0

APG+0.7

0.7

1.4

SPG-0.2

0.2

0.0

BPG+0.6

0.2

0.8

OVER 4.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

4.5

ATL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs ATL: 3 pts

UTA

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs UTA: 5 pts

ORL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs ORL: 6 pts

PHX

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHX: 0 pts

ATL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs ATL: 3 pts

IND

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs IND: 0 pts

CLE

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs CLE: 13 pts

UTA

2026-03-19

2026-03-19 vs UTA: 0 pts

PHX

2026-03-21

2026-03-21 vs PHX: 5 pts

LAC

2026-03-23

2026-03-23 vs LAC: 11 pts

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 4.5

54%

REB

OVER 2.5

56%

AST

OVER 0.5

58%

3PM

OVER 0.5

53%

BLK

OVER 0.5

51%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

UNDER 0.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 7.5

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

4.9

5.0

RPG

2.2

2.9

APG

0.7

1.3

vs POR (H2H)2 games

PPG

1.5

RPG

0.5

APG

0.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Mouhamed Gueye	3	5	0%	-53.3%	medium
Jordan Miller	2	5	14%	-39.0%	low
Rasheer Fleming	2	5	150%	+46.7%	low
Luguentz Dort	2	5	50%

Role boost lifts Pete Nance's floor, but his scoring ceiling stays modest

Pete Nance is trending up, with his last 5 averages rising to 5.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 1.4 APG while his minutes climbed to 20.8 MPG from a season mark of 12.5 MPG. The absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. should keep rotation usage elevated, but his season-long production still sits at just 4.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists. The matchup is not especially intimidating on paper, but his prior results vs this opponent were only 1.5 PPG and 0.5 RPG across 2 games, so the profile still leans conservative. Given the over-bias warning and his high variance, the best angles are the unders on the main scoring/rebounding lines unless the book posts very low numbers.

Stat Trends

PPG

5.8(↑ from 4.7)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 2.3)

APG

1.4(↑ from 0.7)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Portland's opponent profile shows a 117.08 defensive rating with a 0.373 scoring suppression and 0.639 three suppression, so there is some resistance to easy production even without a named defender edge.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Pete Nance▼	Points	4.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓
Pete Nance▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Pete Nance▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Pete Nance▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Pete Nance▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Pete Nance▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Pete Nance▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✗
Pete Nance▼	PRA	7.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	12	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA12OVER40%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x8/1747%▼

P+R11UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)5/1729%▼

P+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x6/1735%▼

PTS5UNDER6%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)8/1747%▼

REB4UNDER20%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/1735%▼

3PA2UNDER32%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)8/1747%▼

R+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x8/1747%▼

AST1UNDER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)8/1747%▼

3PM1UNDER8%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)5/1729%▼

Featured Pick

Pete Nance

Stocks UNDER 1.5HIGH

This line is far above his season average of 0.47 stocks and still well above his recent mean of 0.6. With only moderate defensive event production and high variance, the under is the most stable angle in the prop set.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Hansen Yang	1	1	0	0%	0%
Blake Wesley	1	0	3	33%	33%
Robert Williams III	1	0	0	0%	0%
Caleb Love	2	0	0	0%	0%
Rayan Rupert	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 4.554%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.66 points and his last 5 are 5.8, with minutes up to 20.8 MPG recently. The role boost from teammate absences supports a modest over, but the 4.8-point season standard deviation keeps confidence low.

reboundsOVER 2.556%MEDIUM

He is averaging 2.26 rebounds for the season and 4.0 over the last 5, with 3.1 over the last 10. The recent minute increase makes this a reasonable over, though rebound variance remains high.

assistsOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 0.74 assists and recent mean is 1.1, so a 0.5 line is below his average output. The assist profile is still volatile, but the elevated role keeps the over playable.

threesOVER 0.553%MEDIUM

He averages 0.92 made threes per game for the season and 0.8 over the last 5, with 1.05 at home. The volume is not huge, but the low line gives the over a slight edge.

blocksOVER 0.551%MEDIUM

His season mean is 0.2 blocks, but he has averaged 0.8 blocks over the last 5 and 0.4 over the last 10. This is a pure form-based play and should be treated cautiously because of the small sample.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is only 0.47, and even the recent mean is 0.6. A 1.5 line is well above his usual production, making the under the safer side.

turnoversUNDER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.5 over the last 20, with multiple recent zero-turnover games. If he stays in a lower-usage role, the under is favored.

praUNDER 7.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA sits at 7.7 using the provided averages, but that number is driven by low-volume production and his recent form is only modestly higher. Because combo props are high-variance, the under is slightly preferable.

timelineOVER 4.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Role boost lifts Pete Nance's floor, but his scoring ceiling stays modest

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 4.5 PTS